Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to be a dominant force in technology, shaping various industries and impacting society. As we approach the year 2024, it is important to analyze the emerging AI narratives and trends that will shape the future. This article dives into the key topics that are likely to be central to AI developments in the coming year.
The Rivalry Intensifies: Anthropic vs. OpenAI
In 2023, OpenAI’s ChatGPT made waves in the AI community, but Anthropic, a startup founded by Daniela and Dario Amodei, former senior members of OpenAI, was already closing in. Anthropic introduced its ChatGPT competitor called Claude, on the same day OpenAI launched GPT-4. Both companies are seeking significant funding rounds, with Anthropic in talks with Menlo Ventures for a potential $750 million investment, and OpenAI aiming for a fresh round of funding valuing the company at $100 billion. The rivalry between these two powerhouses is expected to heat up in 2024.
The AI community’s open-source movement is gaining momentum, challenging the dominance of proprietary models. French startup Mistral AI grabbed attention by releasing an open-source LLM called Mixtral8x7B via a torrent link. Mistral’s CEO, Arthur Mensch, boldly stated plans to release an open-source GPT-4-level model in 2024. Additionally, Meta, rumored to be preparing a Llama 3 release that rivals GPT-4, emphasizes engagement with its developer community for feedback and improvement. These developments indicate that the open-source AI community is determined to catch up with proprietary models.
AI’s Impact on Politics
Experts foresee AI playing a significant role in the 2024 Presidential election in the United States. Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, interim dean at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, believes it will be an “AI election” just as 2016 and 2020 were “social media elections.” The influence of generative AI, including chatbots and deepfakes, may contribute to a complex political landscape. At the same time, AI-related regulations could face hurdles as politicians focus on the election and navigating these emerging technologies. The interplay between AI and politics will undoubtedly shape the narrative in 2024.
As AI models become more sophisticated, the data used to train them becomes increasingly critical. Issues surrounding copyright, bias, deepfakes, disinformation, labor concerns, and the dichotomy of open versus closed models all revolve around the data that fuels these AI systems. Recent developments, such as LAION’s dataset removal and OpenAI’s negotiations for new datasets, highlight the importance of delving deeper into the complexities of AI training data. In 2024, exploring these issues will become even more crucial.
Influential Belief Systems in AI
The AI landscape is not only shaped by technological advancements but also by influential belief systems. Effective altruism (EA), a movement focused on maximizing the benefit of AI while mitigating risks, has gained significant influence in AI policy circles. Similarly, effective accelerationism (e/acc), championed by VC Marc Andreessen, presents an alternative perspective on AI’s future. While pragmatists may offer valuable insights, it remains essential to cover the EA and e/acc belief systems due to the outsized influence of their billionaire funders and founders on AI policy and investment.
As we anticipate the developments of 2024, the AI narrative will continue to evolve, driven by fierce competition between companies, open-source initiatives, political implications, data-related challenges, and influential belief systems. It is crucial for individuals and organizations to stay informed and engaged with these narratives to navigate the complex and transformative AI landscape.
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