The journey towards a low-carbon sustainable energy system is marked by several significant milestones. Beyond the symbolic firsts, such as the first hour without coal, oil, or gas generation, and the eventual retirement of all fossil fuel power plants, there is a particularly meaningful milestone on the horizon. That is the year when renewable energy surpasses fossil fuels in generating electricity. In the case of Great Britain, this milestone is anticipated to be reached in 2023, although it will be a closely contested achievement.
Moving Towards a Renewables-Dominated Energy Mix
In 2020, during the tumultuous period of the COVID-19 pandemic, renewables actually overtook fossil fuels in electricity generation in Great Britain. However, this calculation included a portion of electricity generated from “biomass” plants, which burn wood pellets, primarily imported from American forests. While biomass qualifies as a renewable energy source due to the ability to regrow trees, it does not possess the same scalability as weather-dependent renewables like wind, solar, and hydropower. Therefore, when considering a narrower, weather-dependent definition, it is highly likely that renewables will surpass fossil fuels for the first time in 2023 on a global scale.
Furthermore, once this milestone is achieved, it is improbable that gas and coal will regain their dominance over wind, solar, and hydro in Britain’s electricity generation for an entire year. While the exact timing of surpassing this milestone in 2023 remains uncertain, the latest daily data indicates progress towards that goal. The chart below enables an ongoing assessment of this progress, with the lines representing the running total difference between renewable and fossil fuel generation. If the line consistently stays above the zero axis, it signifies that renewable generation has exceeded fossil fuel generation for that period. Ultimately, the aim is for the red line to end the year above zero, signaling the successful achievement of the milestone. It is worth noting that discrepancies may arise due to “missing” and estimated embedded generation data, which accounts for a small percentage of the final total.
Weather-Dependent Renewables and the Importance of Wind Power
With only ten days remaining in 2023, renewables currently maintain a slight lead over fossil fuels, amounting to just over 1,000 GWh (equivalent to a peak day of electrical demand). However, maintaining this advantage hinges on weather conditions, particularly wind patterns. During the holiday period, electricity demand tends to decrease due to reduced industrial and commercial activities. As wind power becomes increasingly cost-effective and environmentally friendly, it is prioritized in electricity generation. Consequently, when demand is low or when there is sufficient wind, there is less reliance on fossil fuels. While factors such as location of generation and electricity imports from other countries contribute to nuances in Britain’s electrical market, the overall trend of renewable energy gaining market share from fossil fuels remains prominent.
An equally significant development is the sustained decline in electrical demand. Surprisingly, 2023 is expected to have lower demand than both 2022 and the pandemic-impacted year of 2020, despite earlier predictions. This trend can be attributed to record prices, resulting in decreased additional generation requirements, of which a substantial portion would come from fossil fuels. Notably, 2023 may witness renewable generation exceeding domestic electricity demand, with residential consumption comprising 36% of total electrical demand. This signifies a significant turning point, as the total electricity generated by wind turbines, solar panels, and hydro resources will exceed the amount consumed by Britain’s 29 million households over the course of the year. The bar chart provided below demonstrates the progression towards this momentous achievement since 2009. While renewable output initially fell short of domestic electrical demand by 1.5 TWh (1500 GWh) during the first half of 2023, strong performance in the latter half indicates a potential surplus of total generation by year-end.
In the event that these milestones are not realized in 2023, it is highly likely that they will be achieved in 2024. Notably, the addition of another 1.7 GW of offshore wind capacity and the planned cessation of Britain’s last coal-fired power station will contribute to further progress in renewable energy generation. As the world progresses towards a low-carbon sustainable energy system, the milestones reached by Great Britain serve as testaments to the growing dominance of renewables in the global energy landscape.
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